The Greatest Threat to US Power (Week 15)

The debate this week covered a broad range of threats to US power, with each team called on to assert that their threat was the greatest threat to US power. Each team debated well, I thought. None of the topics selected were non-threats to the US. For me, the most compelling was that the downfall of the liberal world order as established after WWII will be the greatest threat to US power. The readings for this module, in particular Nelson and Ikenberry, underscored for me how critical that system of diplomatic, economic, and military interests established after WWII is for the US to be successful. The argument they laid out mirrored Ikenberry’s assertions that hard and soft power, interests and ideas, are the bed rock of the current order which has America at the apex.  I think what the group may have missed is some more details on how the recent election, Russian aggression, and the fall of the “idea of America” impact the deterioration of the post-WWII liberal order.

That being said, at the end of a class exploring authority, forms of power, governance, coercion, “the international,” change, etc. we’d be remiss to say that any one threat to is the greatest to US power. The current state of affairs is a controlled, but tenuous balance. Stronger international systems, rule of law, international authority and regulation, could potentially provide more stability and predictability, but would erode statehood and autonomy, which could harm US interests. As it stands now, the complexity of the American role in the international system means that Americans need to keep their eyes on many balls at once. Focus only on maintaining the liberal world order and boom, an infectious disease has come to the US and we’re unprepared. Pretend that climate change isn’t real and focus on achieving equalities in the US, and we’ll find that the ecosystem in which we live as humans has changed dramatically and we aren’t prepared.

What America needs is incredibly smart, realistic, creative leaders in policy, military, civil society, governance, history, global politics, theory, economics, etc. The belief that the position of the US can be maintained without an incredible amount of work and intelligence will be our downfall otherwise. I worry that our greatest threat is the idea that all of this is easy, the government is unnecessary, that catchy replies are effective policy positions, and that we’re too big to fail. No state is too big to fail, and to risk sounding like an Athenian general, there’s always some state waiting to climb to the top and benefit from the chaos.

The last comment Professor Shirk made last night about the role of theory also struck a chord with me. I think in this next phase of American power, the role of theory will be critical. Our ability to adjust and not collapse will be, in part, due to our understanding of the theory, history, and philosophy which got us here. When I think about the topics and readings that we have explored in this class, I reflect on how much I’ve learned personally. Ideas which seem like a good idea on the face (See blog post about whether South Sudan should be sovereign or not) turn out to be ill conceived when discovering different theoretical arguments (Thanks Inayatullah!). If theory is important for clear thinking in this class, theory will be even more important for real time decision making and prioritizing. Again, I worry that the a-theoretical, anti-academic populist wave we’re on now doesn’t see the complexity, importance, and huge potential to do harm or do good of American power.

Great class and great blog all! Catch you in future classes J